Wednesday, 24 September 2008
This is the first time i tried to use "chinese" to enter a blog entry and i must say that the software by sogou is really good. I stumpled about this software while searching an easy to use software for my dad and most importantly, this program is FREE!!!
I have also changed the delivery timing of my emails for this blog to 7am~9am slot to make the email subscribers receive the updates on this blog on a more timely manner.
I had coffee with a local boutique fund manager today and we were having a discussion on the current investment climate. It is boom time for PE firms (with cash) right now as the valuation of companies are cheap and instead of looking for pre-ipo deals, this particular fund manager is looking at listed S-chips that are trading at very cheap valuations and projected to grow at >30% over the next 2 to 3 years. This fund manager that i spoke to were looking at Sinotechfibre, China XLX and China HX. He didnt like China Sky though.
I must agree that pre-ipo market for Chinese companies are rather tough right now due to the low valuation of the S-chips. As you can see, the climate is so tough that there are hardly any IPOs launched and my last blog posting on Singapore IPOs was done on 27 Aug 2008! A check with MAS Opera showed that Zhenzhong Auto has been withdrawn! The IPO sentiments is so bad that many underwriters refused to "work" or launch the IPO unless the placements shares are already fully subscribed. (why call yourself underwriters in the first place?!?!, might as well change name to undertakers. hahaha)
I know of several IPO consultants who have to source for their own placees as well as for the 1,000 shareholders. And in order to entice "big placees" to take up the placement shares, the shares were also being offered at a slight discount to IPO price to ensure that the IPO can proceed and most of the time, this big placees are doing the IPO consultant and underwriter a favour so that they will remember them when the IPO market is "hot" again.
Tuesday, 23 September 2008
The advantages of trading warrants is that i know from the onside the 'maximum' loss which i will suffer if i am wrong but i can enjoy some leverage if i am right. Whereas in futures trading, my losses can be unlimited and i may not be able to ride out the volatility in such market conditions. The experience with BNP has been good as i choose very high volume warrants that are slightly in/out of the money. In addition, i am actually a very short term trader so warrants will suit me just fine as i will not have to suffer too much "time decay". I do know of many who have been badly burnt by trading warrants, hence i am always very skeptical and wary of this trading instrument.
Let's see how this warrant trading adventure will go on but i guess i will stick to trading index warrants like HSI and STI warrants for now.
Monday, 15 September 2008
The best position one would have right now will be to have short positions in the market (either via futures, CFDs or warrants). Sadly, i didnt have the guts to short the market, and this is an area which i should 'work on' as a trader. Somehow, there is this mental barrier towards shorting in me which i have yet to overcome. :(
As i mentioned in my earlier posting, always try to trade in the direction of the overall trend because the trend is your friend. Always remember that because markets moved in cycles. To make $ from the market, one must be in tune with the cycle. My article on "never catch a falling knife" is a gentle reminder of that principle and China Energy is trading at 21 cents as of 15 Sep 2008.
The few principles which i will repeat over and over:
1. The trend is your friend. (adopting different strategies for trend and counter trend trading).
2. Money management. (position sizing and cutting losses quickly)
3. Methodology. (how to pull the triggers).
Despite the financial turmoil...do look at the brighter side.. our chance to financial freedom will be here again. Sieze the chance as it appears but to sieze this chance, you must have the 4 letter word... (scoll down below)
C - A - S - H
Tuesday, 9 September 2008
Spend the Saturday morning on the Singapore Flyer (got 2 complimentary tickets from my National Day stay at Ritz Carlton).
Surprisingly, the Flyer is not as slow as it looks and the 30 mins passed by rather quickly as it is quite scenic. It should be much better when the IR is completed. Not bad if you have kids to tag along. HSBC card holders have 20% off and frankly for a family of 2 adults and 2 kids, it will set you back by approximately $98 before the discount (very expensive). I would not have gone if not for the free tickets... but it might be a good place to bring your overseas friends if they are here for the first time...
Wednesday, 3 September 2008
Really a waste of time and effort and money trading in this kind of down market. It seemed like playing on the 'short side' will be more profitable.